Each week, “Answer Key” aims to help families by responding to an important question about education and schools in Greater Houston. If you have a question for us to answer, please email us at education@houstonlanding.org or fill out the form at the end of this article.

This week’s question:

If the voucher system were to pass, how drastically would this affect public school funding and programs offered by those schools for the 2026-2027 school year?

— Ashley Harris, parent

As the Texas Legislature gets closer to approving a controversial private school voucher bill, many opponents of the legislation are worried about how it will impact the state’s public schools.

Under Texas House and Senate proposals, families could use $1 billion in taxpayer funds in 2026-27 to pay for private school, homeschooling or other education-related expenses. If a student in public school receives a voucher — also known as an education savings account — and leaves for a private school, the public school district would lose funding it gets to educate the child.

Voucher advocates say the legislation will help families find the best education for their students, but critics argue vouchers and the funding loss will cause public school districts to close campuses and end programs.

Here’s what we know about the potential impact on public schools as vouchers come closer to reality in Texas.

How much funding will public schools lose if the Legislature approves a voucher bill?

For now, it’s not totally clear. The ultimate losses depend on several factors, including:

• How much money the Legislature ultimately sets aside for vouchers now and in the future.
• How the Legislature sets up the voucher system.
• How many children in public school apply to receive a voucher.
• How many children in public school ultimately receive a voucher through a lottery if more families apply than there are available vouchers.

Are there any state estimates about the impact on schools?

The most official estimate about the effect of vouchers on public schools comes from the Legislative Budget Board, an arm of the Texas Legislature that analyzes the financial impact of bills.

Under the LBB’s analysis of the House and Senate voucher bills, Texas public schools would lose about $250 million in the first year that vouchers would hit their budgets. That’s roughly 0.4 percent of the $57 billion in funding that school districts received in 2022-23, the most recent with available data, to cover day-to-day costs like staff salaries, transportation and building maintenance. (Texas schools also received $25 billion more revenue to pay for school bonds, student meals and other expenses.)

The analysis is based on the Texas Education Agency estimating 24,500 out of Texas’ 5.5 million public school students will enroll in a private school in 2026-27.

The LBB’s report includes estimates about the potential impact on public schools beyond the first year of vouchers. However, the projections are based on forecasts that Texas legislators will dramatically expand voucher access in the future. 

Texas lawmakers have not committed to funding vouchers beyond the initial $1 billion, though voucher programs have grown over time in other states with similar laws.

Texas Democrats are saying vouchers will cost public schools billions of dollars. Where are they getting those numbers?

A website hosted by the Texas House Democratic Caucus suggests that Texas schools would lose more than $2 billion from vouchers — much more than the LBB’s estimate.

The prediction comes from an analysis done by the left-leaning policy nonprofit Every Texan, which published estimates showing the potential impact of 5 percent of public school students leaving for private schools would exceed $2 billion. (Every Texan also forecasted the impact of 1 and 3 percent of students switching to private schools.)

Every Texan’s projections could become real in the future if state lawmakers expand the program. For now, though, far fewer than 5 percent of public school students will leave under the House and Senate proposals.

What would losing students to private schools mean for public schools?

If students leave public schools, districts would lose money and might have to re-evaluate their budgets. 

Districts already struggling with enrollment losses, such as Houston, Alief and Aldine ISDs, could be hit particularly hard by vouchers. Those districts would face tough decisions about closing schools, cutting jobs and eliminating programs if their enrollment declines speed up.

Rapidly growing districts, such as Katy ISD and Lamar CISD, might not need to make major changes. Instead, vouchers might simply slow down their growth or force them to move around resources.

What comes next? 

The Texas Senate passed its voucher bill, 19-12, in early February, while the House held hearings on its version of the bill last week. House leaders have said they are confident their voucher legislation will pass after a similar proposal failed there two years ago.

The two bills differ in key ways, including eligibility for vouchers and the amount of money given to families. If the House and Senate pass bills with different terms, they will have to come together and pass a compromise bill by June 2, the end of the legislative session.

Angelica Perez is a general assignment reporter for the Landing’s education team. Find her @byangelicaperez on Instagram and X, or reach her directly at angelica@houstonlanding.org.

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