Houston ISD saw its steepest enrollment decline this year since the first full school year of the pandemic, losing roughly 6,000 students, according to preliminary data obtained by the Houston Landing.
Some 183,864 students now attend HISD schools, down from 189,934 in 2022-23.
The count has not been vetted by the Texas Education Agency, but was provided to the Landing by HISD in response to a public records request. The number represents the total students present on “snapshot” day, the last Friday in October each year, when Texas school districts tally their official enrollment.
The 3-percent drop in students could spell a reduction in state funding next year at a time when questions already are swirling over HISD’s fiscal future.
The loss of students also increases the likelihood of upcoming school closures and consolidations, a possibility HISD Superintendent Mike Miles already has mentioned.
HISD said the district is in the process of checking the data before submitting it to the TEA by Dec. 7 and the final figure could vary by up to 1 percentage point. A prior figure provided by HISD to the Landing was 20 students higher than the current 183,864 count, representing the difference between the tally on Oct. 27 versus now.
HISD spokesperson Leila Walsh said the district will make the most out of its financial resources, even if decreases in enrollment trigger a reduction in cashflow from the state. Closing schools would be a last resort, she said.
“Our first priority will always be to try to improve schools, not close them,” Walsh wrote in an email. “Many of our under-enrolled campuses are in neighborhoods with a large number of school-aged children. We believe if we make these schools better, they will attract more students.”
Texas’ largest district has bled students each of the last four years and lost roughly 32,200 students since 2016-17, when enrollment peaked at about 216,100.
Apart from 2020-21 during the pandemic, this year’s enrollment losses represent the most drastic dropoff in the last 10 years.
The decrease in students likely represents a combination of families relocating to other districts, homeschooling and enrolling in private or charter schools. TEA spokesman Jake Kobersky said his agency has seen anecdotal evidence of more students homeschooling or attending private schools in recent years.
Kobersky wrote in an email that it is “likely too early to tell” whether the TEA’s final enrollment number for HISD, which will be released in several months, will differ significantly from the preliminary snapshot day count obtained by the Landing.
This year’s 183,864 enrollment level is slightly higher than early estimates produced by Miles that about 182,000 students were attending HISD. However, it is typical that snapshot day enrollment would notch above daily attendance levels, because schools make extra efforts to lure students to campus that day.
Whether families’ decisions had to do with the rapid changes to HISD this year under state-appointed leadership remains unknown.
Campus-by-campus enrollment counts for this school year have not yet been released. However, early data reported by the Landing in October showed schools overhauled under Miles’ model saw larger attendance dips to start the school year than other campuses.
Regardless of which campuses saw the steepest student losses, the entire district is likely to feel the fiscal fallout of the enrollment changes. A large portion of HISD’s cash comes from the state, which bases its funding level on the average number of students attending district schools. Texas provides districts $6,160 base funding per student, a rate that has not changed since 2019. The state sends additional dollars to districts based on the number of special education students, English learners and other factors.
This year, HISD is spending about a quarter-billion dollars more than it receives in revenue, footing the bill by dipping into its roughly $900 million rainy day fund. While some community members fear the new administration is spending at an unsustainable rate, Miles has promised next year’s budget will not draw heavily on the district’s reserves, regardless of the amount of money HISD gets from the state.
Still, the loss of 6,000 students will mean a significant financial hit for the district, HISD Elected Trustee Judith Cruz said.
“If we don’t have students in schools, we will have less money to spend, which means there’s less money for salaries, programs, curriculum,” Cruz said. “We’re talking about millions of dollars.”
She served as one of HISD’s nine school board members before Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath installed a new board in June. In much of her time leading HISD, the district largely was insulated from the financial fallout of enrollment declines because the state and district used pandemic stimulus funds to plug budgetary gaps, she said.
Now, with those funds set to expire soon and with students leaving HISD, Cruz said the appointed school board will have to make some tough decisions about possible cost-saving measures, including whether to close schools. Miles said in a June interview with the Landing that he “most likely” will bring a list of schools for possible closure to the board ahead of next school year, but Walsh said in her email that school closures in 2024-25 are off the table.
School board president Audrey Momanaee did not respond to a request for comment.
A 2019 report by the Texas Legislative Budget Board showed HISD’s schools have space for roughly 250,000 students, about 66,000 more than this year’s enrollment count. Closing about 40 schools of the district’s nearly 250 campuses could save HISD $26 million in annual operating costs, the Legislative Budget Board said.
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