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As car after car drove into the parking lot of the Northeast Multiservice Center for early voting on Tuesday, 69-year-old Fafaye Nickson sprang out of the walker she was sitting in, bellowing the same phrase.

“You know her. Vote for her. Sheila Jackson Lee for mayor,” Nickson repeated, handing pamphlets through car windows with information about the longtime congressional Democrat seeking to become Houston’s next mayor. 

“The Beast in the Northeast,” as Jackson Lee calls Nickson, is a fixture outside the early voting center on Spaulding Street, dancing to music, talking to strangers and handing out high-fives. 

Most of the voters that drove past Nickson on their way to vote needed no convincing to cast their ballots for Jackson Lee. Cars honked in approval as they passed and those that stopped assured Nickson they planned to vote for her candidate. 

Jackson Lee received more than 80 percent of the general election vote from most of the predominantly Black precincts surrounding the voting center. 

“We have a shot, but the people need to vote,” Nickson said. 

Jackson Lee has counted on enthusiastic supporters like Nickson for decades to send her back to Congress every other year. Now, the congresswoman is trailing in the polls in the Houston mayor’s race against state Sen. John Whitmire. Jackson Lee’s best chance at winning, observers say, is exceptional turnout from her base. 

Even if Jackson Lee rallies a huge percentage of the Black electorate to the polls, she still faces a limit on her support in the form of conservatives and white Democrats who dislike her, according to Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University.

“I think at this point, the only question is what Whitmire’s margin of victory is going to be on Dec. 9,” Jones said. “And that will depend on her ability to turn out voters.”

The competition for votes from the general election continued to play out Sunday during a forum hosted by Precinct 2 Harris County Commissioner Adrian Garcia in the heavily Hispanic neighborhood of Denver Harbor. 

The candidates spoke to a laundry list of issues prevalent in the community, including city services, housing affordability and services for recent immigrants. 

Whitmire touted his support from high profile Hispanic officials, including U.S. Rep. Sylvia Garcia, D-Houston, and state Sen. Carol Alvarado, D-Houston. He also pointed to recent endorsements such as that of District I Councilman Robert Gallegos, who ran for mayor but failed to make the runoff. 

“The Latino community is the future of Houston and of Texas,” Whitmire said. 

Jackson Lee described herself as a unifier who already works to uplift Houston’s Hispanic neighborhoods through funding from Congress for healthcare, housing and other services. She promised to represent the Hispanic community, if elected mayor.

“I’m glad of the Hispanic members of Congress and others across this nation who have viewed Sheila Jackson Lee as a shining star on these issues,” Jackson Lee said.

Inside the campaign

The congresswoman’s supporters say not to write her off, that while Whitmire may be able to blanket the airwaves with advertisements, Jackson Lee quietly is mustering support from voters on the basis of door-knocks and phone banks.

“Our membership is Black and Latino. Our members live in the communities where we are reaching out to voters, and they are very excited about Sheila Jackson Lee,” said Michelle Tremillo, co-executive director of the Texas Organizing Project’s political action committee, which has endorsed Jackson Lee, along with a slate of candidates.

Tremillo said Whitmire is drawing on “right-wing money” to fund his ad campaign. Whatever the source, it is clear that Jackson Lee has been vastly outgunned in the air war.

The divide in ad spending can be shown by looking at one station, CBS affiliate KHOU. Both candidates placed ads on the station before the Nov. 7 general election. Since then, Whitmire’s campaign has placed hundreds of thousands of dollars more in advertising orders, according to Federal Communication Commission files. Jackson Lee has not spent a dime.

“Whitmire has had sufficient campaign resources to maintain a robust advertising campaign. In contrast, Jackson Lee’s campaign warchest is effectively empty, and her advertising since Election Day has been almost non-existent,” Jones said. “You’re not going to win over many voters, but you are going to remind them to turn out to vote for you.”

Whitmire’s campaign says it also has a ground game. A mix of paid staffers and volunteers have knocked on 160,000 doors and placed 2.5 million phone calls through Friday, according to the campaign.

“We do this every day, three block walks a day,” Sue Davis, a Whitmire campaign spokesperson, said Friday.

The Jackson Lee campaign did not respond to a request to comment for this story about its get-out-the-vote efforts.

Jackson Lee’s supporters say her ground game via surrogates like Nickson is what will propel her over the top. It just may not be as visible as campaign advertisements on television.

President Barack Obama was elected in 2008, thanks in large part to a massive turnout from Black Americans, noted Jon Simmons, a Jackson Lee supporter and worker with At-Large Position 4 Councilwoman Letitia Plummer’s campaign who sits with Nickson at the Northeast Multiservice Center. 

“We have an advantage on the ground,” Simmons said. “They’re relying on advertisements, but people vote, signs don’t.”

That may be necessary to overcome a massive disparity in cash between the two campaigns. As of Friday, Whitmire reported more than $3.3 million in cash on hand and nearly $3 million in political expenditures since Oct. 29. That compares to just $235,189 in hand and $341,575 in spending during the same period reported by Jackson Lee on Friday. 

Nickson says overcoming the deficit in cash is easy because Jackson Lee already has been on the ground in Houston’s Black communities in years past. 

“A lot of people are saying Sheila’s work has already spoken for her,” Nickson said. “She was here for us years ago when we were in turmoil, Harvey, hurricanes, storms, lights out. She was here. We see her work.”

Those who voted at the multiservice center Tuesday who spoke with the Houston Landing all said they voted for Jackson Lee and were enthusiastic about their decision. 

However, Jeff Mayer, 71, said he is not seeing his own enthusiasm to vote translated across his community. 

“Usually turnout isn’t good in the runoffs. I hope it’s better than it’s been before because we need it to be,” Mayer said. “I think it’s the candidates. People aren’t that excited about them, either of them.”

Through Sunday, 80,939 votes had been cast in person over seven days of early voting, according to the Harris County Clerk’s Office. There were 124,654 votes cast in the general election for the mayor’s race over 12 days of early voting.

Early voting for the runoff elections ends Tuesday. 

Speaking at a campaign forum co-hosted by District B United and the Houston Landing on Thursday night, Jackson Lee appeared keenly aware of the need to rally the troops. While noting her opponent had failed to attend, Jackson Lee said she knew many of the faces gathered inside Bethany Baptist Church.

“Ride with me into the future. I am here, he is not. Get out and vote like you have never voted before,” she said.

A little help from her friends

In addition to her own volunteers, Jackson Lee is counting on help from outside groups like TOP. The labor-affiliated Houstonians for Working Families, which has been active since 2019, has a get-out-the-vote operation that appears to rival the one housed inside Jackson Lee’s campaign.

The group spent just over $1 million from July 1 to Oct. 28 on behalf of Jackson Lee and other local candidates, according to campaign finance reports.

“We use the money to door-knock, door-knock and phone bank. A lot of phone banking,” said Trey Daniels, a consultant and treasurer for the political action committee.

Drawing on the work of 12 staffers, 40 phone-bankers and 80 canvassers, the group dialed 750,000 numbers and knocked on 85,000 doors in the general election, according to Daniels.

Voter enthusiasm thus far has been “moderate,” Daniels said.

“Historically speaking, it is not as high as I have seen it, but this is an off-year heading into the presidential election,” he said.

Many voters expressed confusion about the crowded, 18-candidate field during the first round, he said, but their choices now have been narrowed to just Jackson Lee and Whitmire.

A poll released Monday showed Whitmire with a 42 percent to 35 percent lead over Jackson Lee.  While pundits like Jones give the congresswoman long odds, Daniels is more optimistic. He pointed to the 22 percent of undecided voters in the same poll.

“It’s all about turnout,” he said. “If you look at other races around the country, you look at progressive candidates in certain races – where they had a phenomenal (get-out-the-vote) operation, the field game can determine an election.”

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